How big is a division?

[zute]

I apologize for another lame-ass question, but in the story I'm writing now this actually has relevance. It's the difference between paranoia and reasonable concern.

When you rescue Riordan he tells you that Loghain had turned away 200 Grey Wardens and two dozen divisions of cavalry.  When I looked up division sizes I got utterly enormous numbers like 10,000 for single light infantry division, in the modern army. I'm sure that must be vastly larger than in middle ages terms.

Does anyone have a feel for how many actually people that would be? 

My thanks!

Zute

Comments

[elysium_fic]

Not unheard-of, but certainly rare. I think if any nation in Thedas is capable of marshalling such a force, it would be Orlais, but just because the COULD, I'm not certain they WOULD.

Looking at the historical and military equation, it becomes really apparent that it just doesn't benefit Orlais to invade Ferelden, or even to rattle their sabers in the direction of Ferelden, with a Blight looming.

As the seat of the Divine of the Andrastrian Chantry, as well as being surrounded by countries that have been hit hard by Blights in the past, Orlais cannot avoid having a fairly accurate understanding of just what a Blight means and just how much devastation it can wreak.

Ferelden doesn't, because they've never been touched by a Blight. Orlais has, and Orlais is also right next door to the Anderfels, which apparently has areas that were so corrupted by the First and Second Blights that the corpses left never decomposed properly because of the lack of insects and microbes to gnaw on them.

Orlais knows this, and because they know this, two other facts become apparent:

1) it will be of NO profit to them to conquer Ferelden if Ferelden falls to the Blight. Oh, look, we've conquered a wasteland! Whoopee! When I say no profit to them, I mean that literally. If Ferelden is so corrupted by the Blight that they can't grow crops or pay taxes, then it will be a huge expenditure to send and maintain troops in Ferelden with no return on investment. There would simply be no point to it.

2) If they distract Ferelden's defenses, they weaken their own defenses. The only hope Orlais has to prevent the Blight spreading to their own soil is to stop it on Fereldan soil. The Divine in Val Royeaux have to be shitting in their robes about that possibility, to the point where I'm actually surprised they're not sending an army of templars to help. Orlais understands the Blight, they understand the very real threat they're under, which means they very sincerely WANT to be Ferelden's New Best Friend.

Would I put it past the empress to try to turn the situation to her advantage and use that newfound spirit of cooperation to attempt a more subtle takeover, like, say, coaxing Cailan into marriage? No. But all the information on her indicates that shes a savvy enough ruler to know that it's in her best interest NOT to frighten Ferelden with military threats.

This, I think, is the biggest tragedy of Loghain's actions. Do I believe HE believed Orlais to be a serious threat? Sure. But in the end that threat was in his imagination. He wasn't seeing the whole picture. Because he didn't take the Blight seriously or understand just what was at stake, he didn't see that Orlais WAS taking the Blight seriously, that they DID know what was at stake, and thus was no danger to Ferelden.

[zute]

It wouldn't make much sense to do it before the Blight is dealt with. Assuming the Blight was handled in a timely manner and it didn't leave Ferelden all blighted and gross, most of those forces could still be in the country and possibly disinclined to leave.

There isn't enough information to know whether or not Orlais was truly a threat or whether they were potentially good allies. There's a gap of 30 years since the end of the occupation and we don't know whether there had been assassination attempts, plots uncovered, spies, etc.

I am certain that Loghain would never trust Orlais. Sometimes you just have to wait for the older generation to die off before you can make progress in changing attitudes. One thing I wondered about is how long it took people who experienced Pearl Harbor or the Holocaust to trust the Japanese or the Germans as allies. It probably takes longer the worse your experience is.

Empress Celene was pretty sly to murder her uncle and outmaneuver her cousins to get the throne at age 17. Who knows what sort of plots she was hatching.

[elysium_fic]

Assuming the Blight was handled in a timely manner and it didn't leave Ferelden all blighted and gross, most of those forces could still be in the country and possibly disinclined to leave.

But there is no rational reason for Orlais to assume that.

To date, the shortest Blight had been 8 years long and even that one managed to slaughter the ruling family of Antiva and devastate large portions of the Free Marches, Rivaine and the Anderfels.

There's no historic precedent for a Blight ending as quickly as the one in Ferelden turns out to or for a Blight remaining contained in a single nation. There's no reason for Orlais to assume such a thing would happen, much less to hedge their bets on it happening.

[klarabella]

This. I never believed Orlais would actually invade at this time. RtO says Empress Celene is aware that this is a Blight that's why she's delaying her visit to begin with. I'm sure that was the moment when all her plans to marry Cailan died. As you said, a Blight is not expected to end so soon, it has been a matter of years, sometimes centuries, before.

They don't even invade during Awakening, one year after the Blight and with Ferelden considerably weakened.

[zute]

They don't even invade during Awakening, one year after the Blight and with Ferelden considerably weakened.

Yeah, but you have the advantage of hindsight that Loghain doesn't have.

There were two things he believed at Ostagar (that are documented):
1) It isn't a blight.
2) Orlais wants to conquer us (from his past experience)

With those beliefs was he justified in turning away a massive Orlesian force? You be the judge. :D

[prisoner_24601]

See this is a great point. Loghain gets judged a lot from people with meta knowledge of the game and hindsight, which I think is really unfair and does a real disservice to the character.

Really you have to look at the knowledge Loghain would probably have at the time he makes these decisions. And if you do that, his actions seem much more rational and he becomes way more sympathetic and tragic - as he makes the wrong decisions.

[prisoner_24601]

No I'm sorry, but I disagree.

It makes all sorts of sense for them to try and invade Ferelden, especially if, like you say, they thought the blight was for real. For one thing, if the Ferelden screws this up, then it makes things bad for Orlais in the long run. Better to go in there and take care of it yourself, then letting the noobs handle it and standing on the sidelines hoping for the best.

However, I think assuming that Orlais is somehow more appreciative of blights more so than Ferelden is quite a logical leap. Hasn't it been hundreds of years since the last blight? It's human nature for people to forget how bad things in the past were and not appreciate appreciate the danger. Look at the brutal Orlesian occupation as an example - it's still within living memory, and yet you already have the king of the next generation being dumb enough to consider marrying the Empress and handing over Ferelden without a fight. And that's within 30 years, not with a few hundred year gap between blights.

I mean, really, we don't know if Celene actually has taken the blight seriously or not. There's no real evidence for this in the game either way. And from Loghain's point of view, even if there has been no saber rattling from Orlais, with the brutal Orlesian occupation only 30 years prior, it makes a lot of sense to be wary of this huge occupational force that is there to "help." It is entirely possible that the Orlesians would come in with their much larger forces, fight the blight and then never actually leave. So really, it's entirely rational of him to keep the Orlesians out, especially in this circumstance.

Where he makes his mistake, I think, is that he doesn't take the blight seriously enough, which is unfortunate and gets people killed as he's busy sending assassins after the grey wardens, poisoning Eamon and whatnot.

[niniane]

Poisoning Eamon actually makes sense, though.

Even Eamon admits that other than Alistair, Loghain is the most logical person to lead the country. And that a divided country is screwed. Yet the first thing he does upon reviving (and what Teagan does for him when he's in a coma or whatever) is to lead a civil war against Loghain.

...which is really, really stupid.

Honestly, I'd poison the guy, too.

[zute]

That wasn't even the reason why he poisoned Eamon. His reasoning:

This was done in anticipation that Loghain and Cailan would have a showdown [ed: over Cailan relaxing policy toward Orlais], and Arl Eamon would always solidly be in Cailan's camp. Like I said, Loghain is the sort of man that will ensure his enemies are defeated before they're engaged.

I know this isn't spelled out, but Eamon was never supposed to actually die from the poison. It would keep him sick for a long time -- certainly long enough for Isolde to try all their options and send out knights looking for remedies -- and then, once the confrontation with Cailan was done, Eamon could be given the cure. The elf was sent to Redcliffe to keep an eye on things and watch for news of Eamon getting worse, and if that happened then Loghain could send the cure immediately. Or, at least, that was the intention. If Eamon died in the name of keeping Ferelden safe from Orlais, Loghain wouldn't shed too many tears over it.

I've got DG's feedback over here.

[niniane]

Oh, yeah, I totally agree that this wasn't the reason (seeing as it wasn't in the game yet), but the two men quite obviously did not see eye to eye, and neutralizing Eamon made a lot of sense from Loghain's POV.

...it's one of the few things that I'm totally in his camp over. Like, the guy was a problem. Tough luck that he had to be neutralized for a while. I mean, better to risk killing him than to risk a war with him and destroy many.

[elysium_fic]

It makes all sorts of sense for them to try and invade Ferelden, especially if, like you say, they thought the blight was for real.

No, it really doesn't.

[prisoner_24601]

Lol, okay. Obviously you're uninterested in having a discussion or conversation, which is sort of odd, as this is a discussion thread, but whatever.

[niniane]

Why wouldn't it benefit Orlais to invade Ferelden? I mean, it's got land. Trees. Probably mineral resources of some sort. They invaded before for a reason, I'd assume. If it was worth something then, why not now?

The last Blight was, what? 400 years ago? I mean, you can't even get Americans all that freaked out about flu, despite that we had an epidemic that killed more than any war only about 100 years in the past (and probably better record keeping). It wouldn't surprise me if Orlais isn't all that worried, or figures that with it's military force and large stock of Wardens that it's just fine. (After all, they can let Ferelden take the brunt of the Blight, then come in afterwards and either eliminate the Blight, or eliminate the few stragglers remaining in Ferelden. Easy peasy!)

1. I'm not sure that Ferelden will be a wasteland after the Blight. It might be, but the farmland may still be fertile and great to give to some good Orlesian peasants. Mineral resources should be intact. Likely there will still be lumber. Really, it's a gold mine!

2. I'd agree that it makes more sense to stop the Blight in Ferlden than in Orlais. But potentially Orlais thinks that they can wait until the Blight takes out 90% of the Ferelden defenses, then march in, take out the Blight, then finish off Ferelden. That's probably what I would do, were I Celene (and totally ruthless, but she seems to be.)

I think a lot depends on how risk averse you think Celene is, as well as how badly damaged you'd expect land to be post-Blight. (Like, do you destroy just the infrastructure and kill all the people, or totally salt the earth, too?) If Celene's not too risk-averse *and* doesn't think that the Blight would destroy Ferelden forever and ever, she's probably going to post her troops at the border and merrily wait it out until one side is dead and the other is weakened.

[klarabella]

Ferelden will not be a wasteland like the Anderfels is but it would take decades to recover. The Darkspawn taint the land they set their foot on, which means they render it infertile.

By the end of Origins (about one year after Ostagar) the south of Ferelden is overrun, the Hinterlands, The Southron Hills, the Western Hills in the norht (west of Highever) and huge parts of the Bannorn. Fereldan people have fled the country, seeking asylum at Orlais and the Free Marches (Kirkwall is swamped with refugees).

So no, devastated lands without a working infrastructure and a manpower deficit aren't attractive.

And as the Elysium author said, a Blight is not something that can be expected to be over in a matter of weeks or months. After Ostagar there can be no doubt what they are dealing with.

[niniane]

Let's assume that Celene believes (and this is a HUGE assumption, considering the time spans involved, etc.):

1) There is a true Blight going on in Ferelden
2) The Blight will utterly destroy everything that it touches for the rest of anyone's conceivable life

Then why risk her own army to defend Ferelden? (With really, nothing to gain if we're assuming that she's not planning an invasion). From the map, Ferelden looks like it's a reasonable distance from Orlais...why not wait until they get closer to do something? Or, again, wait until the Fereldans have taken the worst of the Blight, then deal with it on their soil (with the idea that you can swoop in and rebuild later)?

And that's assuming that we all know that Blights = total ruin. Which I'm going to guess Celene doesn't know for sure, and may or may not be willing to risk. Even if refugees are pouring in, she has to be canny enough to not believe every word they say. (And I find it hard to believe that the Blight totally destroys everything. If it does, Ferelden post game is totally screwed as it's lost a huge percentage of its land.)

I also argue with the idea that "manpower deficit" would be considered a problem in Thedas. Up until the modern era, life was cheap. Honestly, most peasants would probably love to be able to get a lot of free land with no pesky inhabitants. (Heck, this is why the Americas were settled - free land is attractive, even if it is swarming with diseases and often hostile natives - at least if you're an impoverished peasant.) I can see a bunch of empty land with no infrastructure as a great opportunity for Celene. Dump a bunch of the irritating peasants and second sons into it, if they starve, bring over more. If they thrive, yay, more country under your command without having to deal with a pesky other group of people. It seems rather win-win if there's any value to the land at all.

...and, you know, even if the land is a barren wasteland...Australia, anyone?

[elysium_fic]

Then why risk her own army to defend Ferelden?

Enlightened self-interest. Orlais is next on the Blight's menu.

[niniane]

Why would you believe Orlais was next? The Blight could go anywhere after Ferelden (I'd assume that it would hit the Dales prior to Orlais, anyway).

Plus, if it's enlightened self interest to kill the Blight, why aren't all the kingdoms in Thedas offering support?

It seems rather fishy.

[varelishawt]

Actually, Genghis Khan's forces were frequently outnumbered by their opponents - if we can put any faith in the historical records from those times.

Anyway, I guess it would depend on whether Celene would use the carrot or the stick with regards to Ferelden. The codex on the Empress seems to indicate she is a somewhat more enlightened and wiser ruler than her predecessor.

Whatever her actions, however, I would bet she thought about a military takeover of Ferelden. With the Blight taking up so much of the army's attention, the civil war, and the outcome at Ostagar, I would bet dollars to donuts that her Orlesian generals and advisors were saying it's a perfect time to invade. That's just human nature, and it even has parallels in our real world, such as the Romans invading Persia every time there was a succession crisis, and vice versa. So I don't think Loghain's fears are not all that imaginary.

I'm sure the incredibly quick ending of the Blight took everyone by surprise, including Orlais. Depending on reports of Blight damage, the outcome of the Landsmeet, who is chosen to rule, etc, it would give Celene an excuse to squash any call for a military adventure, which is why they didn't invade in Awakening.

[niniane]

Yes, the codex does make Celene sound pretty together. But I had to imagine that no matter how enlightened, as you said, she has to be seriously eying Ferelden. (And even if she's not, Loghain doesn't know this...)

[elysium_fic]

(And even if she's not, Loghain doesn't know this...)

That's the point. If he'd been in his right mind, he SHOULD have known, because it's not a difficult deduction, especially for a general of his ability.

At best, he had a deadly case of tunnel vision. At worst, he was insanely paranoid. Either way, he was definitely missing the forest for the trees.

[niniane]

Umm...but half of the people on this thread seem to think that Orlais is a potential threat. (Just counting and all. If it was just me, I'd go "OK, seeing things that aren't there! Moving on!") So unless Loghain had a lot of information that we, from a meta perspective, don't have, I think we have go agree that it's pretty plausible that he'd (rationally) see Orlais as a threat, whether it actually is or not.

Unless, of course, you think that everyone on this thread who is saying "yeah, I think that Orlais could be a threat" is insanely paranoid, has a deadly case of tunnel vision, are not in our right minds, are missing the forest for the trees...

[darkrose]

Whatever her actions, however, I would bet she thought about a military takeover of Ferelden.

Maybe for about five seconds, sure. At which point she would probably realize that there is no benefit to doing so. To use a more modern analogy, it would be like the U.S. re-occupying Iraq five years from now: we'd get back into a quagmire that left thousands of our people dead, to have control over a country with a devastated infrastructure and people who still hate us from the last time we were there. It would be a giant sinkhole of money and lives that would gain Orlais absolutely nothing.

What I think is more likely, if we're speculating, is that Celene saw an opportunity to gain an economic and possibly military advantage down the road by "helping". "See, Orlais just wants to be friends....we're helping you out, and if you happen to want to reciprocate in the future by negotiating favorable trade concessions, and letting us keep a few "military advisors" around, just to help, you know...."

[varelishawt]

Since when has logic and reason ever been a barrier to human ambition, though? :) To take an example from the real world, let's look at the centuries-long conflict between Persia and Rome. We know now that it was ruinously expensive, completely futile, and may have paved the way for the devastation of the bubonic plague.

I agree, however, that Celene leaned more toward peaceful relations with Ferelden, judging by the cut content where she would have married Cailan.

[darkrose]

Since when has logic and reason ever been a barrier to human ambition, though? :)

Ambition to do what, though? Was there a strong feeling in Orlais that honor demanded that they reconquer the muddy, dog-smelling country that was always more of a drain on the treasury and a place where young Orlesians went to die in disgrace? Are there any natural resources that Ferelden has that Orlais lacks? The initial invasion, I can buy naked territorial ambition with a gloss of religious justification (we should control Andraste's birthplace), but there is absolutely nothing that Orlais could get from re-occupation that couldn't be obtained more cheaply in money and lives by diplomacy.

If there's a true real-world parallel here, it would be to England and France. Losing Calais was a huge psychological blow to the English, but Elizabeth wasn't interested in spending the money to try to get it back when she took the throne.

The important thing, for me, isn't whether or not Orlais was really going to invade. It's that Loghain was convinced that they were, and even if Celene had sworn on Andraste's Ashes in front of him that no, they were just coming to fight the Blight, he still wouldn't believe that there was no invasion plan. That's why I find Loghain fascinating as a character: he's willing to violate everything that he and his country supposedly stand for in order to save it from a threat that only he sees.

...kind of like the mirror image of Duncan, actually...

[zute]

I don't know. The British certainly seemed to succeed in building an empire that lasted for a very long time. I think it was easier back in those days.