peopleofthedas | How big is a division?

Actually, Genghis Khan's forces were frequently outnumbered by their opponents - if we can put any faith in the historical records from those times.

Anyway, I guess it would depend on whether Celene would use the carrot or the stick with regards to Ferelden. The codex on the Empress seems to indicate she is a somewhat more enlightened and wiser ruler than her predecessor.

Whatever her actions, however, I would bet she thought about a military takeover of Ferelden. With the Blight taking up so much of the army's attention, the civil war, and the outcome at Ostagar, I would bet dollars to donuts that her Orlesian generals and advisors were saying it's a perfect time to invade. That's just human nature, and it even has parallels in our real world, such as the Romans invading Persia every time there was a succession crisis, and vice versa. So I don't think Loghain's fears are not all that imaginary.

I'm sure the incredibly quick ending of the Blight took everyone by surprise, including Orlais. Depending on reports of Blight damage, the outcome of the Landsmeet, who is chosen to rule, etc, it would give Celene an excuse to squash any call for a military adventure, which is why they didn't invade in Awakening.

Yes, the codex does make Celene sound pretty together. But I had to imagine that no matter how enlightened, as you said, she has to be seriously eying Ferelden. (And even if she's not, Loghain doesn't know this...)

(And even if she's not, Loghain doesn't know this...)

That's the point. If he'd been in his right mind, he SHOULD have known, because it's not a difficult deduction, especially for a general of his ability.

At best, he had a deadly case of tunnel vision. At worst, he was insanely paranoid. Either way, he was definitely missing the forest for the trees.

Umm...but half of the people on this thread seem to think that Orlais is a potential threat. (Just counting and all. If it was just me, I'd go "OK, seeing things that aren't there! Moving on!") So unless Loghain had a lot of information that we, from a meta perspective, don't have, I think we have go agree that it's pretty plausible that he'd (rationally) see Orlais as a threat, whether it actually is or not.

Unless, of course, you think that everyone on this thread who is saying "yeah, I think that Orlais could be a threat" is insanely paranoid, has a deadly case of tunnel vision, are not in our right minds, are missing the forest for the trees...

Loghain is a general of renown and thinks himself fit to rule a country. He should have access more information than the writers cared to spell out for us.

The story of Origins spans over a year. You'd think that at some point he would adjust his views, sort out his priorities and admit that he is wrong. Orlais hasn't invaded since Ostagar, the Blight is real.

Loghain likely does have more information than we do in some ways, less in others. Of course, some of the information that he has may point to Orlais being a bigger threat than we think it is. *shrugs*

I'd agree that after a point, it gets kind of silly when Loghain refuses to relent (esp. on the part of inviting the Grey Wardens in). That said, it's hard for me to not see the chevaliers as a very real potential threat...and it's hard for me to see Loghain taking that seriously as insanity or complete paranoia.

it's hard for me to see Loghain taking that seriously as insanity or complete paranoia.

It becomes insanity or paranoia when he refuses to acknowledge the very real threat of the Blight so that he can keep ranting about the possibly-imaginary threat of Orlais, and when he basically starts waging a campaign of terror against his own people for that reason.

But this would be assuming that the threat of Orlais is imaginary, which we have no evidence of. In many ways, our evidence would point in the opposite direction.

1) Orlais took over Ferelden 30 years prior (and did a horrible job)
2) There are legions of Orlesians just outside the borders waiting to get in
3) As of RtO, we learn that Orlais is planning to marry into the royal line (probably to take control of the country. Cailan's cute and all, but I'm guessing that Celene had other plans.)

I agree that refusing to acknowledge the Blight was a really bad move on Loghain's part. BUT, that doesn't mean that the threat from Orlais wasn't real, or that Loghain was totally crazy to be concerned about it.

1) The occupation lasted decades and ended thirty years ago, like many occupations in history these where dark times. Things do change, though, especially when leaders change.

2) Yes, they are just outside the borders on Cailan's request and they are waiting because they were turned back. Good thing about invading armies: You can easily stop them in their tracks by telling them to stop at the border. They just do that.

3) As of RtO, we learn that Cailan and Celen were planning a permanent alliance, this was postponed because there was this Blight problem. Celen tells Cailan that the Wardens assured her that this is a Blight and that they'll have to deal with it first. Celene is obviously not so inclined to invade rather than resorting to other means (like a political marriage).

1) Oh, I agree, things change. (And Loghain likely had a particularly nasty experience with the Orlesians to boot.) That said, occupations have almost never been good things for the occupied, so concern is warranted.

2) Invading armies don't always stop at borders when asked. But depending on the circumstances, there may be a lot of logic for it. If there's a natural barrier or pass with poor supply chains, the army may prefer to wait it out rather than to risk being starved/attacked from a good vantage point. We don't really know all the details about what might cause problems did they press further. Again, maybe they're just being polite and hanging out waiting just in case they're needed. Maybe they're biding their time, waiting for the Blight to do their work for them.

3) Again, Celene seems to be a competent ruler, and she's probably going to go the easy route if she wants to reclaim Ferelden. Marriage wastes a lot fewer resources than does conquest. It's a sensible solution, if Ferelden is willing to go that route (which they seem to be).

Loghain wasn't a computer. He made decisions from his past experiences and certainly his emotions guided those decisions. His personality was such that he made a decision and stuck with it, like allying with Howe. As DG says: There is also the matter of his association with Arl Howe, someone Loghain evidences great distaste for -- but politics makes for strange bedfellows, as they say. In my mind, Loghain always thought that Howe was an ally completely under his control and was probably never able to admit even to himself how much Howe was able to manipulate him. Howe acted on a great number of things without Loghain's involvement or approval, but by then the two were already in bed together -- Loghain was committed, as it were, and after Ostagar doubly so. For all his faults, Loghain is not a man to waver once a decision is made -- good or bad. The only reason he gives up, in the end, is because he sees that there is someone else beside himself who can save Ferelden, someone who hasn't made the mistakes he has. The burden does not rest entirely on his shoulders -- which, yes, is how he feels.

As far as not believing it was a real Blight, the definition of one is that there's an archdemon present. No one had seen him and Loghain wasn't likely to trust Grey Wardens after what happened in The Calling. Plus they were so damn secretive about everything. Maybe if they'd discussed the fact they're all dreaming about the archdemon it would have carried some impact.

Plus, there's a more personal reason why Loghain didn't want to believe it was a true Blight. It would mean that Flemeth's prophecies were true and he didn't want to believe he had betrayed his best friend. (From DG)

Yeah, I agree. There was def. a lot of emotion going into the decision "don't let the Orlesians in!" I just don't know that it was totally illogical. ;)

Hmmm...I hadn't thought about the archdemon bit, but that does make a of sense if you're going "is this a real blight, or just a larger than usual grouping of darkspawn?"

Um, even Cailan doesn't think it's a real Blight, though. Duncan and the Grey Wardens know because of the archdemon appearing in their dreams, but for a man who already distrusts Wardens, with a pretty pragmatic attitude, it would be difficult to convince him. Saying, "Oh, I saw the archdemon in my dreams," wouldn't exactly help the cause. Compared to such nebulous knowledge, it isn't inconceivable for Loghain to determine Orlais is the greater threat.

Cailan says, he isn't sure that this is a Blight. But even after that he says 'The Blight ends here!' So while he's not sure about it he does consider the possibility, and rightfully so.

And after Ostagar there is no nebulous knowledge. A Darkspawn horde, creatures the people believed extinct, just outnumbered the Fereldan armies. If Loghain has any doubts about what is happening all he needs to do is to send scouts and gather information.

(no subject)

darkrose - 2010-11-23 22:10 (UTC) - Expand

Yes, but Cailan was an idiot.

None of us is interested in lumping Loghain into that particular category, so at some point we need to acknowledge that his utter refusal to acknowledge the Blight was a huge oversight that he really ought to have been rectified. He was obsessed with a hypothetical threat to the point of ignoring a real threat. What else can that possibly be called, but myopic and/or paranoid?

Anora for example does consider accepting help from Orlais and allows them in immediately after the Landsmeet. She asks her father about Cailan's plans to ask Orlais for help. Isn't she supposed to be the politician in the family (unlike her father)? Loghain gets extremely upset when she mentions this option.

Yup, Anora is quite willing to deal with the Orleians. But figure that she's never lived in Orlesian-occupied Ferelden, may believe that she can out-fox Celene if it comes down to it, and completely believes that there's a Blight going on (and seems to have some knowledge about Grey Wardens that she probably shouldn't have - I've always seen her and Cailan as sharing notes on them).

We all know, in meta "we've played the game world" that Anora is right. No doubt! (If for no other reason than Orlesian occupation > being killed by undead monsters.) Even Loghain eventually relents if you recruit him.

I just quibble at the idea that 1) the Orlesians are obviously our friend and no threat (that seems rather naieve), and that 2) Loghain is being totally insane and paranoid for not wanting them in the country (he has some pretty good reasons).

Again, to me, it's those shades of gray that keep things interesting.

Whatever her actions, however, I would bet she thought about a military takeover of Ferelden.

Maybe for about five seconds, sure. At which point she would probably realize that there is no benefit to doing so. To use a more modern analogy, it would be like the U.S. re-occupying Iraq five years from now: we'd get back into a quagmire that left thousands of our people dead, to have control over a country with a devastated infrastructure and people who still hate us from the last time we were there. It would be a giant sinkhole of money and lives that would gain Orlais absolutely nothing.

What I think is more likely, if we're speculating, is that Celene saw an opportunity to gain an economic and possibly military advantage down the road by "helping". "See, Orlais just wants to be friends....we're helping you out, and if you happen to want to reciprocate in the future by negotiating favorable trade concessions, and letting us keep a few "military advisors" around, just to help, you know...."

Since when has logic and reason ever been a barrier to human ambition, though? :) To take an example from the real world, let's look at the centuries-long conflict between Persia and Rome. We know now that it was ruinously expensive, completely futile, and may have paved the way for the devastation of the bubonic plague.

I agree, however, that Celene leaned more toward peaceful relations with Ferelden, judging by the cut content where she would have married Cailan.

Since when has logic and reason ever been a barrier to human ambition, though? :)

Ambition to do what, though? Was there a strong feeling in Orlais that honor demanded that they reconquer the muddy, dog-smelling country that was always more of a drain on the treasury and a place where young Orlesians went to die in disgrace? Are there any natural resources that Ferelden has that Orlais lacks? The initial invasion, I can buy naked territorial ambition with a gloss of religious justification (we should control Andraste's birthplace), but there is absolutely nothing that Orlais could get from re-occupation that couldn't be obtained more cheaply in money and lives by diplomacy.

If there's a true real-world parallel here, it would be to England and France. Losing Calais was a huge psychological blow to the English, but Elizabeth wasn't interested in spending the money to try to get it back when she took the throne.

The important thing, for me, isn't whether or not Orlais was really going to invade. It's that Loghain was convinced that they were, and even if Celene had sworn on Andraste's Ashes in front of him that no, they were just coming to fight the Blight, he still wouldn't believe that there was no invasion plan. That's why I find Loghain fascinating as a character: he's willing to violate everything that he and his country supposedly stand for in order to save it from a threat that only he sees.

...kind of like the mirror image of Duncan, actually...

The comparison is not as apt - Rome and Persia bordered each other - England is on an island, and separate from the mainland. Orlais doesn't have to build ships to invade - not, of course, that it stops either France or England in other wars.

We don't know if there is strong feeling in Orlais - are there Orlesian contemporaries to Loghain in the highest circles of the imperial court, who would love nothing better than to give those smelly dogs of Fereldans just who's the boss in Thedan politics?

As to what's in Ferelden Orlais would want - Amaranthine itself has deposits of different types of ore, which I imagine would be tasty enough for Orlais. Plus there are at least three port cities: Highever, Amaranthine, and Gwaren - port cities equals trade, equals money, equals profit.

Hell, I'm surprised Celene didn't make a move to take over Redcliffe, after the zombie invasion and the loss of its arl, it being the closest to the border.

The comparison is not as apt - Rome and Persia bordered each other - England is on an island, and separate from the mainland. Orlais doesn't have to build ships to invade - not, of course, that it stops either France or England in other wars.

Well, and the fact that Word of God says that's the parallel they were going for, which is why I used it. They've described the Orlais/Ferelden relationship as the inverse of the French/English relationship, with France as the occupying power.

And I'm not arguing that it wasn't considered. But I don't think it was considered for very long. If you accept that Celene is not an idiot, again, there's nothing she could get from a military occupation that she couldn't get more cheaply by some other means--like, say, marrying Cailan.

...kind of like the mirror image of Duncan, actually...

YES! I'm glad I'm not the only one that sees that. In fact, in my latest story Loghain tells my warden that they're rather alike. Only for him, substitute the word Orlesian Threat for Blight.

I don't know. The British certainly seemed to succeed in building an empire that lasted for a very long time. I think it was easier back in those days.

Yeah, mostly because the other nations wouldn't judge the conquering nation. They didn't gang up on you to tell you what you were doing was immoral and wrong, and that if you didn't stop, nobody would talk to you anymore.
If you can defeat a country, it's fair game. And why does one conquer another nation? For the increase in territory and security (even if there's nothing in Ferelden they want - being constantly at war with Navarra the Orlesians would have an interest in silencing the old foe on the other side) for the increase of population (a non-issue if Blighted), securing trade routs (Orlesian ships must pass Ferelden on their way to Antiva), for resources (mining can be done, even if the area is Blighted, as said above), to generate a constant market for the products of your country, or to gain something of value in said country (The only entrance to Orzammar is on Ferelden soil - if the Orlesians want to trade with the dwarven kingdom directly, they must go through Ferelden - which they can't)...

Just pick one (sigh)...