I figured Alfstanna, however reasonable she was about Loghain and blights, was likely to be solidly behind the Chantry, given her brother is a Templar. Also Waking Sea is losing out, as it's not been chosen to be the major port for the lyrium trade, despite being closest to Orzammar.

A Teyrn's vote carries his allies' votes in its wake, so Fergus got the benny.